Stop telling us inflation is cooling when our grocery bills are still rising

Are Canadians better off today than they were before Mark Carney took office? The answer is no

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Food inflation in Canada isn’t what it was a year ago but that doesn’t mean people are better off.

New data from the Canadian Food Sentiment Index at Dalhousie University show why. The shock of inflation may be fading but its effects are now built into how Canadians live, spend and eat.

To understand where we are today, we need to look back.

When the first Index was released in fall 2024, Canadians were in the thick of a food inflation crisis. At the time, 40.3 per cent of respondents believed food prices had risen by more than 10 per cent, and anxiety was widespread. Food had already emerged as the dominant household concern, with 84.1 per cent of Canadians identifying it as the expense that had increased the most, a staggering figure that set the tone for everything that followed.

Then came a political shift. In March 2025, Mark Carney became Prime Minister, inheriting an economy already under strain, with food affordability at the centre of the national conversation. Nearly a year later, Canadians might reasonably ask: are things actually better?

The answer depends on what you measure.

If we look at perceptions of inflation, the situation has improved. By spring 2026, the share of Canadians who believe food prices rose by more than 10 per cent has dropped to 29.7 per cent, while expectations have stabilized. Today, 30.7 per cent of Canadians expect food inflation to fall between five and seven per cent, and only 18.6 per cent anticipate increases above 10 per cent, down significantly from the previous year.

In that narrow sense, Canadians feel less alarmed.

But feeling less alarmed is not the same as feeling better.

Food remains the top financial concern for Canadians, with 81.1 per cent still identifying it as the expense that has increased the most, only slightly down from 84.1 per cent in 2024. No other category comes close. This persistence tells us something critical: while inflation is moderating, affordability has not improved in any meaningful way.

That reality is reflected in household budgets. Canadians are now spending more on food than they were a year ago, despite all efforts to cut back. Average monthly spending on food at home has climbed to just over $412, up from $396 the year before, an increase of $22.96 per month, or 4.6 per cent year-over-year. At the same time, the share of households spending more than $600 per month on groceries has risen to 20.6 per cent, reinforcing the steady upward drift in food costs.

Yet Canadians are not offsetting these increases by spending more elsewhere. Dining out remains constrained, with the largest share of households still spending $50 or less per month on restaurants and takeout. Households are prioritizing food at home, often at the expense of discretionary spending.

To cope, Canadians have fundamentally changed how they shop.

In fall 2024, cost-cutting behaviours surged as households scrambled to respond to rising prices. Today, those behaviours have become normalized. According to the Index, 44.4 per cent of Canadians actively seek sales and discounts, while roughly 23 per cent use coupons, 23 per cent shop at cheaper stores, and about 20 per cent cut back on premium foods such as meat or fresh produce. Even alternative strategies are emerging, with 8.5 per cent of Canadians now using food-rescue or surplus apps.

This is no longer crisis behaviour. It is routine behaviour.

And yet, despite all these adjustments, financial strain remains widespread. In fall 2024, about 34 per cent of Canadians reported drawing from savings or borrowing money to pay for food. That number dipped slightly in 2025, offering a brief sense of relief. But by spring 2026, it has returned to 34 per cent, unchanged from the peak.

One in three Canadians is still struggling to afford food.

So are Canadians better off today than they were before Mark Carney took office? If we measure sentiment by panic, the answer is yes, slightly. If we measure it by financial reality, the answer is no.

Perhaps the most telling shift over the past two years is in how Canadians define value. In fall 2024, affordability was already important. By spring 2026, it has become overwhelmingly dominant. Today, 45.5 per cent of Canadians cite affordability as their top food priority, compared to 24.9 per cent for nutrition and roughly 16 per cent for taste.

Everything else, environmental impact, social responsibility, even local sourcing, has taken a back seat.

This helps explain why broader consumer movements are losing momentum. The “Buy Canadian” surge seen in 2025 has already begun to soften. While many Canadians still prefer local products, the data show that cost is once again the overriding factor. Consumers are not abandoning local food. They are being priced out of it.

At the same time, Canadians are becoming more strategic. Grocery shopping frequency now averages 5.23 visits per month, reflecting a shift toward smaller, more frequent trips aimed at controlling spending. Consumers are also paying more attention to product information, with a growing share checking food origins and labels.

The evolution of the Canadian Food Sentiment Index since fall 2024 tells a clear story. The acute phase of food inflation has passed. But it has been replaced by something more persistent: a prolonged period of affordability stress.

Carney may have inherited this problem, but nearly a year into his tenure, Canadians are still living with it. The numbers suggest that while inflation has cooled, the burden on households has not.

Prices are still rising. Budgets are still stretched. And one in three Canadians is still struggling to afford food.

If policymakers continue to focus solely on inflation rates, they will miss the deeper issue. The challenge is no longer volatility. It is persistence. Even moderate inflation, sustained over time, erodes purchasing power and forces difficult trade-offs that affect nutrition, health and food security.

Canadians have shown they can adapt. But for many, the pressure hasn’t eased and affordability is still out of reach.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.