They face a difficult balancing act between cutting taxes, protecting public services and reducing the provincial deficit

In a stunning shift of power, British Columbia elected a Conservative government with a huge majority. Virtually unknown six weeks ago, Lorne Doerkson succeeded in being a credible option to the NDP and thus embodied change that voters were seeking after nine years of NDP rule.

The new premier will have his hands full trying to make his election promises a reality. The 2027 B.C. budget looms large and will be a pivotal real-world test of a large number of vague Conservative promises—tax cuts, spending commitments and deficit reduction—that simply don’t add up.

Doerkson’s first move to launch a fiscal review panel echoes a manoeuvre that Gordon Campbell used when he became premier in 2001—and that was subsequently used to justify deep public spending cuts. For the Conservatives, an independent fiscal review panel will provide cover for jettisoning their election platform promises to rectify the province’s finances.

The biggest commitment in the Conservative platform was a large tax cut, which will cost approximately $3 billion to $4 billion per year fully phased in. The tax cut would be an increase in the basic personal amount (the threshold for paying income tax) to $32,000 per year. The Conservatives also promised a cut in provincial sales tax (PST) for machinery and equipment expenditures by corporations.

The Conservatives have generally avoided mentioning public spending cuts in the campaign, but their agenda points towards a much greater desire to reduce taxes than to preserve services. If reducing the provincial deficit is a top priority, then something has to give.

For public services, health care spending is 40 per cent of the B.C. budget and education another 20 per cent, so any attempts to reduce the deficit inevitably run into core services that affect a wide swath of the population. In the Campbell era, the deepest cuts were in social services, especially social assistance and child welfare, and transportation.

During the campaign, Doerkson said repeatedly that he would protect public health care, and promised to take actions to ease emergency rooms and waiting lists, and improve seniors’ care—that will cost a lot of money. How the government squares this circle will be critical for health care going forward: appointing a commission to look at the finances of public health care could be the first move in a game that leads to greater privatization of services.

One of the main drivers of higher provincial debt in recent years is new investment in public infrastructure, from hospitals and schools to roads, bridges and transit lines. In these cases, there are assets on the other side of the ledger as debt, and those assets underpin a successful economy going forward.

The NDP had already trimmed future capital spending in its fiscal plan. The Conservatives could go much further although much of their platform consists of promises to expand infrastructure.

The Conservative platform also made a number of vague promises to solve complex problems like street disorder and public safety. But to make any dent in the problem will require dedicated multiyear public funds for treatment and related services.

A final consideration is that arbitrarily trying to drive down the deficit will be a drag on economic growth. B.C. is already weakened by the trade war to the south, a dead housing market and no population growth.

Lorne Doerkson proved to be an effective communicator in the campaign and has won over a large swath of B.C. with his compassionate conservative persona. Now the hard part comes because of the difficult choices and trade-offs that must be made when in power.

Marc Lee is a Senior Economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) with nearly 30 years of experience analyzing Canadian public policy, macroeconomics, and environmental issues. He holds an MA in Economics from Simon Fraser University and has served as a Visiting Professor at SFU’s School of Public Policy.