Missteps expose the risks of handing power to an untested technocrat like Carney
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If a political campaign stumbles at the starting gate and voters barely notice, does it matter? That’s the question facing newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney, who called a snap election this past Sunday for April 28—and has already fumbled through the opening days.
You’ve likely heard this thought experiment before: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” Its origins remain unclear. Some have suggested it was taken from Anglo-Irish philosopher George Berkeley’s A Treatise Concerning the Principles of Human Knowledge. That seems to be a stretch, so it may be a variation on several themes that were gradually tied together.
Theodore L. Flood’s defunct magazine The Chautauquan posed a similar question in its June 1883 issue: “If a tree were to fall on an island where there were no human beings, would there be any sound?” The answer was thought-provoking. “No. Sound is the sensation excited in the ear when the air or other medium is set in motion.”
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That’s one way to look at it. You could also argue that a tree would still make a sound because the action of falling doesn’t have to be connected to the reaction of a human being hearing it.
Let’s adjust things to fit within the parameters of the federal election. If Carney continues his pattern of stumbling through this campaign, will Canadian voters make a sound?
Carney’s supporters would likely say “no.” They have a valid argument because his party is ahead in many opinion polls. The most recent data (as of this writing) showed the Liberals leading the Conservatives 46 to 38 per cent, according to the Angus Reid Institute on March 24. That’s a healthy advantage.
Carney’s detractors would likely say “yes.” They also have a valid argument because opinion polls are small snapshots of voter intentions. They’re not the be-all and end-all of political analysis. Circumstances can change quickly, and the pendulum can swing in different directions.
Here’s an example. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives led in the polls for over two years. They were ahead by double digits for over a year and by an average of 20 to 25 points in recent months. Many Canadians seemed convinced the Conservatives would run away with the next election. The reality was different. The gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was always going to shrink. Anyone who suggested otherwise was fooling themselves.
It ultimately did, partly because of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s departure (almost 70 per cent of Canadians wanted him to resign in late December) and largely because of frustrations about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Conservative parties and leaders.
Poilievre got ensnared in the latter category. The Liberals have tried to link him to Trump in the past but have largely been unsuccessful. The president’s tariff battle and threats of annexing Canada have changed today’s political temperature. Even though Poilievre’s political ideas, views and policies are vastly different from Trump’s—which the U.S. president has himself acknowledged—some Canadians remain unconvinced.
While Carney’s supporters are likely thrilled that some Canadians have returned to their political camp, there’s no guarantee they’ll stay put. Pollster Nik Nanos recently suggested “this campaign is going to see a lot more volatility than we’ve seen in the other campaigns,” meaning the result could be a “coin toss.” He’s right, and my guess is about 30 to 35 per cent of the electorate could be easily swayed one way or the other.
This puts the politically inexperienced prime minister directly in the hot seat.
Carney has solid credentials, including former head of two central banks (Canada and England), former chair of Brookfield Asset Management, the Financial Stability Board and Bloomberg L.P.’s board of directors, and former special adviser and chair of a Liberal Party task force on economic growth. The fact remains that he’s never led a party, run for a political seat—or worked on an election campaign. It’s not a seamless transition to move from one discipline to another, in spite of what some suggest. Governing a party and country is a completely different kettle of fish, too.
Carney has a reputation for having a “volcanic temper,” according to Larry Elliott, former economics editor of Britain’s left-wing Guardian newspaper. He’s proven himself to be extremely thin-skinned during press scrums. Carney told CBC News Network’s Rosemary Barton to “look inside herself” and “you start from a prior of conflict and ill will” when she expressed doubt about his blind trust (of which few details have been released) and possible conflicts of interest due to his time in the private sector. That’s to say nothing of his gibberish response to a reporter when asked about repaying the costs of his European trip as an unelected official. Carney ignored the question and droned on about tariffs and trade. When the reporter said, “I’ll take that as a no, then,” Carney retorted, “No, you’ll take that as a very comprehensive answer to your question.”
Carney has also been long associated with left-wing views such as increased government intervention, tackling wealth inequality and supporting net-zero emissions. He’s now attempting to shed this image. He removed Trudeau’s hated federal carbon tax, wants to build national trade corridors and called for a middle-class tax cut. Carney is trying to out-Conservative the Conservatives, which is a difficult task for someone who’s never been mistaken for a Conservative.
What’s the answer to this Canadian-based philosophical thought experiment? We’ll find out after the election is over.
Michael Taube is a political commentator, Troy Media syndicated columnist and former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics, lending academic rigour to his political insights.
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